{
  "build_id": "ca64e43e988cc59c12bc",
  "configuration": {
    "candidate_history_carry_limit_years": 8,
    "candidate_history_decay_applied": false,
    "candidate_history_persistence": 0.43161368076118445,
    "candidate_history_persistence_se": 0.07575765433892369,
    "candidate_history_source": "southern_v3_repeat_candidates",
    "candidate_history_used": true,
    "design_features": [
      "incumbency_balance",
      "baseline_dem_margin",
      "baseline_margin_squared",
      "years_since_2016",
      "odd_year",
      "presidential_cycle",
      "state_code_AL",
      "state_code_AR",
      "state_code_FL",
      "state_code_GA",
      "state_code_KY",
      "state_code_LA",
      "state_code_MO",
      "state_code_MS",
      "state_code_NC",
      "state_code_OK",
      "state_code_SC",
      "state_code_TN",
      "state_code_TX",
      "state_code_VA",
      "chamber_lower",
      "chamber_upper",
      "baseline_office_family_federal_composite",
      "baseline_office_family_generic_ballot",
      "baseline_office_family_governor",
      "baseline_office_family_president",
      "baseline_office_family_state_composite",
      "baseline_office_family_statewide_other",
      "baseline_office_family_us_house",
      "baseline_office_family_us_senate",
      "prior_pres_margin",
      "lag_current_ticket_change",
      "lag_change_x_years"
    ],
    "finance_used": false,
    "forward_test": "train_post2016_southern_before_2022_test_alabama_2022",
    "generic_ballot_environment": true,
    "generic_candidate_assumption": false,
    "ideology_used": false,
    "incumbency_treatment": "included_as_symmetric_race_condition_in_war_structure",
    "ridge_alpha": 100.0,
    "seed": 20260831,
    "simulation_draws": 50000,
    "structural_applied": true,
    "structural_selection_policy": "owner_selected; forward validation retained as advisory",
    "war_structural_specification": "decaying_lag",
    "war_training_cutoff_rule": "cycle > 2016; prospective fit through 2024",
    "war_training_warehouse_run_id": "RUN-504CE4C4DF904D88A5A40D268F3FCEAB"
  },
  "diagnostics": {
    "baseline_forward_mae": 7.071811484465457,
    "candidate_history_forward_mae": 7.347113641596721,
    "candidate_history_improves_structural_on_holdout": true,
    "candidate_structural_forward_mae": 7.65135405693177,
    "forward_test_rows": 33,
    "headline_mean_abs_candidate_adjustment": 1.5309963498094976,
    "headline_races_with_candidate_history": 23,
    "historical_rows": 97,
    "max_forecast_identity_error": 5.329070518200751e-15,
    "prospective_rows_per_scenario": 48,
    "selected_forward_mae": 7.347113641596721,
    "structural_improves_baseline_on_holdout": false
  },
  "generated_at_utc": "2026-10-05T21:19:36.330704+00:00",
  "git_commit": "178d6f4841855dbc4d5d85656421290343daaf8b",
  "inputs": [
    {
      "path": "data/processed/war/alabama_war_v1/race_war.csv",
      "sha256": "34f1b1188344df99e8ced890e1a43e7ae5de87e373b437c120de816ba97c19e3"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/war/alabama_war_v1/manifest.json",
      "sha256": "93ccef993d0c4bbcde5e41f68de6b34f7f143a78cc20ea5492af5fb0feedc362"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/war/post2016_southern_war_v3/manifest.json",
      "sha256": "c879265a3e09af1fe1dd9793d3da816d6357e26336801a4267063cdbb8596d63"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/polling/historical_silver_a_generic_ballot_cycles.csv",
      "sha256": "52e4ab48342c5550b4ecb1d146914a4120c777d4b888f4cbae88d32684817010"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/war/2026_final_candidate_roster.csv",
      "sha256": "d9ee34c1b7b37096503d5eebbea07cfc24cc2df0f9da3ffde9ef41def710388c"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/war/2026_candidate_incumbency.csv",
      "sha256": "9aae05a0e0ae8998754dc1ecbcdbae7da925f560f375f9eb32337d1c95cbc3c9"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/war/2026_poll_adjusted_baseline.csv",
      "sha256": "c331d029b6eb1a9cfada40eef83164ffa9b6f9882015299e3359219ba5c4cd59"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/robust_forecast_v1_error_components.csv",
      "sha256": "4085d289d65d17b847bad2d314356d70d0ffd5ab3bc72633e1b07aa69eef5d68"
    },
    {
      "path": "project_docs/model/ALABAMA_WAR_FORECAST_FIELD_CONTRACT.md",
      "sha256": "bc2817c3eed14663a77e18ad965e96ee47e8c89de739177a4900196007c6963a"
    }
  ],
  "methodology_version": "alabama_war_environment_forecast_v2",
  "outputs": [
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_historical_panel.csv",
      "rows": 97,
      "sha256": "a273b17f354b8401fb8406fb1974c9eadd9135905aa14785200ade77b41d7306"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_forward_predictions.csv",
      "rows": 33,
      "sha256": "8fee91252d7145f07abc70766454d02b33f87930fbf859d817c869f2c875ea93"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_forward_metrics.csv",
      "rows": 3,
      "sha256": "a7ea78038a98bdf5def6bd697b89558c79aec6aba13dc77b4d44f42920e7e82a"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_probability_families.csv",
      "rows": 53,
      "sha256": "2ea631f436f58f776ad9125aa7ebe0421f432d4566f5552c4200a3e2ccd9364c"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_2026_scenarios.csv",
      "rows": 192,
      "sha256": "1f24446eec4f8cded6a56c094da05f10dddc1188032f72aa2cd8fa3150f0f13f"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_2026_full_uncertainty.csv",
      "rows": 48,
      "sha256": "e28b44c6f1510b54e9afe0d4df13aa425a32b5b53fcf893c1adebe855b233ca9"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_2026_modeled_seats.csv",
      "rows": 15,
      "sha256": "aa081939b66fc562e6b71aa96a17f1e2a4266f72194b4cfe0fe8a3775eb18af8"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_2026_environment_seat_joint.csv",
      "rows": 200,
      "sha256": "97c7ea411582c867d95e71212679f663e2b8ca653accaffdb7ea96787c1dd499"
    },
    {
      "path": "data/processed/forecast_calibration/alabama_war_forecast_v1_run_ledger.csv",
      "rows": 6,
      "sha256": "4845df870ec5a582ffebf6a61fa345d3de545dd4ff4e4d3ef3317cc5f4a45ac6"
    }
  ],
  "probability": {
    "df": 5.0,
    "family": "student_t",
    "holdout_brier": 0.016510730543271027,
    "holdout_coverage_80": 0.8484848484848485,
    "scale": 7.75,
    "selection_rule": "maximum_likelihood_on_holdout_margin_residuals"
  },
  "schema_version": 2,
  "selected_specification": "war_structural_plus_candidate_history",
  "selection_reason": "owner_selected_war_expectation_with_candidate_history; the generic-ballot baseline still has the lower holdout MAE and that comparison is published",
  "status": "published_owner_selected_environment_adjusted_war_forecast_with_validation_warning"
}