2026 Election Forecast
District forecasts based on 2024 presidential results, the current national generic ballot, and each nominee’s own demonstrated WAR where they have run before. Fundraising is not a forecast input.
Forecast view
Where the competitive seats sit
District forecast table
. Margins, probabilities, intervals, and ratings use the forecast view selected above. Margin strips run from R+40 to D+40; larger margins sit at the edge.
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Data sources and freshness
Observed, modeled, missing, and imputed values are distinguished in district details. Supporting data remain downloadable.
How to read this forecast
The headline begins with each district’s 2024 presidential margin and applies the national swing implied by current generic-ballot polling.
Nominees with a matched prior Alabama race carry a share of their own WAR forward; everyone else is evaluated generically. Ideology and fundraising are excluded. The headline includes the owner-selected structural adjustment, including its symmetric incumbency effect. On the sole direct Alabama forward holdout it still trails the generic-ballot-only benchmark, while carrying candidate history improves on the structural model alone; that comparison is published as an advisory limitation, not as evidence that the structural term is zero.
The 2022 holdout MAE is the average Alabama district-margin error after training on eligible post-2016 Southern races before 2022 (2,039 training races). The scenario tabs change only the assumed national polling error.
The headline uses 50,000 simulations. Shared national, statewide, and chamber error prevents the chamber distribution from treating every district as independent.
District probabilities use a Student-t(5) curve calibrated on the 2022 holdout. Scenario tabs show a typical national polling error in either direction.
Carried-forward candidate WAR applies only where a prior Alabama race is matched. Districts with one major-party nominee are fixed; genuinely unresolved districts remain unmodeled and gray.