Methods
Definitions, data sources, validation, and limitations for the forecast, Alabama and Southern WAR, and historical ideology analysis.
Forecast methodology
Generic-ballot district baselines, zero-WAR generic candidates, uncertainty, simulations, and the 2018-to-2022 promotion test.
Read forecast methods →Alabama WAR methodology
Race residuals, structural expectations, party orientation, coverage, validation, and limitations.
Read Alabama WAR methods →Southern WAR methodology
2016 backcasting, election-year district geometry, state finance coverage, and missing-score rules.
Read Southern WAR methods →Ideology methods
Issue evidence, caucus clustering, WAR comparisons, era estimates, and interpretation limits.
Read ideology methods →Measure definitions
Alabama WAR is the actual legislative-minus-ticket gap minus the same-cycle fitted structural gap. It is a race residual: the Democratic candidate receives the residual and the Republican receives its negative. It is not a pooled career effect or a forecast probability.