Southern Historical WAR
WAR = actual legislative-minus-ticket gap − fitted structural expected gap. The Democratic candidate receives the race residual; the Republican receives its exact negative. WAR is retrospective, not a win probability. Purple means the Democrat ran ahead of expectation and orange means the Republican did; gray means no eligible score, and missing WAR is not zero.
The South at a glance
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Colors are capped at ±30 margin points, matching the Alabama historical map. Details show uncapped values.
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Race outcomes and WAR
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| District | Democrat | Republican | Result | Raw gap | Expected gap | WAR (D) |
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Coverage and interpretation
Post-2016 races retain the published Southern v3 same-cycle residuals, including 2023 and 2024. The 2016 races are labeled post-2016-model backcasts. Research-only context, non-D/R contests, and missing outcomes remain unscored; absence is not proof that a district was uncontested.
Fundraising is descriptive only and is shown where both major-party source observations and identities are complete. Missing amounts are unavailable, never zero. Census boundaries are display geometry and do not resolve an unknown provider plan vintage. The Tiles view gives each district one equal square near its location so small city districts stay visible.